I’d love to talk about the debate Monday night because I love debates, politics, and battle. Unfortunately I can’t for two major reasons:
1. It was the first debate, and there are only losers and non-losers there. Despite what you’ve heard, you can’t win them.
2. Pawlenty, supposedly, was a big loser.
Since Spin Alley Monday night, the murmur on the street has been that Pawlenty went soft, didn’t differentiate himself enough from Romney to get big donors on board, and should have stuck to his position he held on Fox News Sunday referring to the Massachusetts Healthcare Plan as “Ob-omney-Care.” Because this seems to be the prevailing opinion, let me explain why its wrong.
First off, almost everyone brought up the 1960’s debate between Kennedy and Nixon where in Nixon was beaten because he “erased the assassin image.” This was advice given to him by then VP candidate Henry Cabot Lodge. For historical disclosure, Lodge was the man ousted from the Senate by the Kennedy Machine and later a diplomat in Vietnam. As Old Yankee Money often does, he holds a wide resume.
But there are several ways in which this comparison is highly flawed. For one thing, neither man in the incumbent. Nixon, in that situation, had everything to lose. Kennedy was, at that point most famous Nationally for coming in second for the VP slot the election cycle previous. Pawlenty conversely made his non-pundit debut to the national stage last night. To come out of the gate as a complete jackass would mean you were, at best, a complete foil candidate – someone there to ruin another candidate (Like Jon huntsman will be). Also, in American politics, jerks can only get away with being jerks (and by that I mean not completely hated) if they’ve got some juice/charisma to them. Not to disparage, but this is not Pawlenty’s strong suit. A few notable jerks to parse the data would be Dick Cheney and a pre-scandal Anthony Weiner. One was universally hated, one was partisan hated but at least he was a media darling. Pawlenty is more of a Cheney when it comes to swagger.
Secondly, the GOP has a pecking order and generally follows it. You get the nomination when its your turn to get the nomination. Its why I think so many Obama-voting Democrats last time around recoiled at Clinton supporters saying “Its Hillary’s turn.” You could almost see them ask “Aren’t those GOP marching orders?” Romney has not only technically earned the Establishments hallpass to run, but he’s made sure no one else will usurp it from him. Going back to Nixon, in 1968 Reagan may have stolen that election from him, but Nixon’s southern strategy had paid dividends and Nixon walked off with the Nomination handily. Romney hasn’t exactly buddied up to Senators and Governors in early primary states (Palin’s been following Nixons plan far more closely), but Romney’s network is a Juggernaught. He’s driving towards record breaking fundraising donations and he’s coming off more like a Kennedy than a Nixon, choosing to forego states that cater to an alternative brand of Republicanism. If Iowa elected Huckabee over McCain last time around, you can bet your ass a Billionaire Mormon from the East Coast has a better chance of being elected Beauty Queen than Republican nominee. Pawlenty knows that if he can be the second Establishment candidate this time around, he’s got a far better shot of becoming President than he will if he manages to beat Romney out this time around. Here’s why:
1. Even if Romney grabs the Establishment position, theres no saying the Tea Party will let him get away with taking th nomination. Bachmann turned in an impressive performance Monday night, eradicating many of the myths about her as a know-nothing looney toon from the MidWest. Not to mention that idea that Rick Perry might get into the race. He’s a good deal more to the right than Bachmann, but I’ve seen few modern day politicians to match Rick Perry’s charisma.
2. The GOP still faces a highly formidable President who won by a very large margin in 2008 and with new shifting demographics, he’s poised to maintain a good deal of those Electoral Votes. (He will in no way maintain his numbers from 2008, but his chances are good).
3. 2016 is an open field. Biden is and has always been highly beatable. I also think by that time he’ll be too old to reasonably compete (He’ll be roughly 74 by then). Pawlenty saw what happened in 2008 and frankly it allows for anyone to get in there (Did anyone hope Obama would run in 2006 besides the hyperpartisans?)
The idea that Pawlenty has ruined his chances is only true if we take the short-view, election-cycle tunnel-vision approach that the 24-hour networks operate in. If Pawlenty looks at the landscape and surveys correctly, coming in a slick second, and getting in play for the VP position means 2016 looks like more of a lock for him than ever before stealing Iowa with ease as the local, NH was the no frills Establishment guy, losing to some dingbat down in SC (unless he uses Nixon’s SS) and then running against said individual or looking inevitable after the win. At that point the money’s rolling in, opposition donations are way down and he walks into the Nomination against a non-Administration Democrat who’ll be saddled with any bad thing that’s happened since 2007.
Unless, of course, Rick Perry gets in this time around; Then the horse race is on.
No comments:
Post a Comment